Projecting the upcoming 2014 PBA Draft Order

The upcoming draft is ticketed to be an interesting one, so just like last year, I have already made the decision to execute the projection on the draft order.

I am basing this still on the explanation given to me last year by Fidel Mangonon III on draft computations.

40% goes to All-Filipino, 30% each for the import-laced ones.

Here are the current finishing positions from the previous two conferences, as well as the quarterfinals of the ongoing one.

10 - Air 21
9 - Meralco
8 - Alaska
7 - Globalport
6 - Barako
5 - TNT
4 - Petron / San Miguel
3 - Ginebra
2 - Rain or Shine
1 - SanMig

10 - Globalport
9 - Barako
8 - Ginebra
7 - Meralco
6 - Alaska
5 - San Miguel
4 - Air21
3 - Rain or Shine
2 - TNT
1 - SanMig

10 - Globalport 

9 - Meralco

8 - Barako Bull

7 - Air21

6 - Ginebra
5 - San Miguel
4 - Alaska
3 - TNT
2 - SanMig Coffee or Rain or Shine
1 - Rain or Shine or SanMig

4
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
2
1.6
1.2
.8
.4

3
2.7
2.4
2.1
1.8
1.5
1.2
.9
.6
.3

Air21 = 4+1.2+2.1 = 7.3
Alaska = 3.2+1.8+1.2= 6.2
Barako = 2.4+2.7+2.4 = 7.5
Ginebra = 1.2+2.4+1.8 = 5.4
Globalport = 2.8+3+3 = 8.8
Meralco = 3.6+2.1+2.7 = 8.4
Petron / San Miguel = 1.6+1.5+1.5 = 4.6
Rain or Shine = .8+.9 = 1.7
SanMig = .4+.3 = .7
TNT = 2+.6+.9 = 3.5

Globalport = 8.8
Meralco = 8.4

Barako = 7.5
Air21 = 7.3

Alaska = 6.2

Ginebra = 5.4
Petron / San Miguel = 4.6
TNT = 3.5
Rain or Shine = 1.7
SanMig = .7

As such, my projection for the upcoming 2014 PBA Draft order is as follows:

1 & 2. Globalport / Meralco
3. Barako Bull
4. Air21 (or soon-to-be NLEX? will be NLEX, as the PBA has given it's ok on the sale)
5. Alaska
6. Barangay Ginebra
7. San Miguel
8. Talk 'N Text
9. Rain or Shine
10. SanMig Coffee
11 & 12. Kia / Blackwater

The winner of the Globalport / Meralco draft lottery drafts first in the first (and subsequent odd ones) round, while the loser drafts first in the second (and subsequent even ones) round.

It is assumed that the expansion team that will pick first in the dispersal draft will not be picking eleventh in the PBA draft, as it pertains to Kia / Blackwater. It is also assumed that they will alternate picks as well, much like the two worst teams.

EDIT: It has been pointed out by Job de Leon about this quote from a Karlo Sacamos piece:

The league has also given to the three new teams — apart from the 11th ,12th, and 13th picks — the first, second, and third selections of the second round, as well as the remaining picks from the third round onwards in the Rookie Draft on August 24.

Integrating the trades of picks (EDIT: as well as recently-concluded and controversial Draft Lottery), the draft order of the two rounds are as follows:

1st round:

1. Globalport
2. Rain or Shine (from Meralco)
3. Barako Bull
4. NLEX
5. Alaska 
6. Barangay Ginebra
7. SanMig (from San Miguel via Barako)
8. Barako Bull (from Talk 'N Text)
9. Rain or Shine
10. Barako Bull (from SanMig)
11 & 12. Kia / Blackwater

2nd round:

1 & 2. Blackwater / Kia
3. Alaska (from Meralco)
4. Rain or Shine (from Globalport)
5. Barako Bull
6. Alaska (from NLEX)
7. Alaska 
8. Barako Bull (from Barangay Ginebra)
9. Alaska (from San Miguel via Meralco)
10. Talk 'N Text
11. Rain or Shine
12. San Miguel (from SanMig Coffee via Barako)

As such, the breakdown of the top 24 picks are as follows:

Alaska and Barako Bull will each have a total of five picks in the first two rounds.
Rain or Shine will have a total of four picks in the first two rounds.
The expansion franchises each have a couple of picks in the first two rounds.
Globalport, NLEX, Barangay Ginebra, San Miguel, TNT, and SanMig will each have a pick, while Meralco does not have a pick in the first two rounds.

And with that, you may proceed with your mock draft/s.