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Saturday, September 28, 2013

Doing a Humble Bola? - The 2013 PBA Draft positioning Part 2

Part 1 is here.

With SMC's 83-73 victory over ALA, let's update the rankings:

Here are the finishes in the previous two conferences:

AFC = TNT, ROS, SMC, ALA, MER, BGK, PBB, A21, BRK, GBP
CC = ALA, BGK, SMC, TNT, ROS, PBB, MER, A21, BRK, GBP
GOV = *, *, *, *, GBP, BRK, ALA, BGK, TNT, A21

* being either PBB, SMC, MER or ROS.

Formula: Number finished in AFC x .4 + Number finished in CC x .3 + Number finished in GOV x .3 = value

The lower the value, the closer you are to drafting at the back end instead of the front end of the 1st round.

TNT = 1, 4, 9 (.4 + 1.2 + 2.7 = 4.3)
RoS = 2, 5, 1 or 2 or 4 (.8 + 1.5 + ? = 2.3 + ?)
SMC = 3, 3, 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 (1.2 + .9 + ? = 2.1 + ?)
ALA = 4, 1, 7 (1.6 + .3 + 2.1 = 4)
MER = 5, 7, 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 (2 + 2.1 + ? = 4.1 + ?)
BGK = 6, 2, 8 (2.4 + .6 + 2.4 = 5.4)
PBB = 7, 6, 1 or 2 or 3 (2.8 + 1.8 + ? = 4.6 + ?)
A21 = 8, 8, 10 (3.2 + 2.4 + 3 = 8.6)
BRK = 9, 9, 6 (3.6 + 2.7 + 1.8 = 8.1)
GBP = 10, 10, 5 (4 + 3 + 1.5 = 8.5)

So, the current computations sees this:

TNT = 4.3
RoS = 2.3 + either .3 or .6 or 1.2
SMC = 2.1 + either .3 or .6 or .9 or 1.2
ALA = 4
MER = 4.1 + either .3 or .6 or .9 or 1.2
BGK = 5.4
PBB = 4.6 + either .3 or .6 or .9
A21 = 8.6
BRK = 8.1
GBP = 8.5

A21 and GBP will be participating in the lottery, with A21 securing two envelopes and GBP having just one.
BRK then picks third, followed by some order between BGK, PBB and MER (depending on subsequent results), then TNT and ALA, then finishing with either ROS or SMC (depending on subsequent results).

Time to go to the what ifs in the semis: PBB vs ROS & SMC vs MER:

If PBB and SMC win,

MER finishes third and ROS finishes fourth.

ROS = 3.5
MER = 5

BGK will locked in as 4th selection, then MER or PBB depending on PBB's finals performance (PBB title means MER picks 5th, while SMC title means PBB picks 5th).
ROS will be locked in as 9th, and SMC in 10th, regardless of SMC's finals performance.

If PBB and MER win,

SMC finishes third and ROS finishes fourth


ROS = 3.5
SMC = 3

Draft positions will be formalized already regardless of Finals result.

BGK will be locked in as 4th, PBB in 5th, MER in 6th, ROS in 9th and SMC in 10th.

If ROS and SMC win,

PBB finishes third and MER finishes fourth

PBB = 5.5
MER = 5.3

PBB will be locked in as 4th selection, BGK in 5th and MER in 6th.
Loser of ROS-SMC finals picks 9th. Winner picks 10th.

If ROS and MER win,

PBB finishes third and SMC finishes fourth

PBB = 5.5
SMC = 3.3

Draft positions will be formalized already regardless of Finals result.

PBB will be locked in as 4th, BGK in 5th, MER in 6th, SMC in 9th and ROS in 10th.

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