Doing a Humble Bola? - The 2013 PBA Draft positioning Part 1

As such, I decided to stat crunch things. I may not be like the guys at Humble Bola, the pre-eminent stats gurus of Philippine Basketball, but here goes nothing:

Here are the finishes in the previous two conferences:

AFC = TNT, ROS, SMC, ALA, MER, BGK, PBB, A21, BRK, GBP
CC = ALA, BGK, SMC, TNT, ROS, PBB, MER, A21, BRK, GBP
GOV = *, *, *, *, SMC (if ALA wins) or GBP (if SMC wins), GBP (if ALA wins) or BRK (if SMC wins), ALA (if SMC wins) or BRK (if Ala wins), BGK, TNT, A21

* being either PBB, MER, ROS or ALA-SMC winner

Formula: Number finished in AFC x .4 + Number finished in CC x .3 + Number finished in GOV x .3 = value

The lower the value, the closer you are to drafting at the back end instead of the front end of the 1st round.

TNT = 1, 4, 9 (.4 + 1.2 + 2.7 = 4.3)
RoS = 2, 5, 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 (.8 + 1.5 + ? = 2.3 + ?)
SMC = 3, 3, 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 (1.2 + .9 + ? = 2.1 + ?)
ALA = 4, 1, 1 or 2 or 4 or 7 (1.6 + .3 + ? = 1.9 + ?)
MER = 5, 7, 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 (2 + 2.1 + ? = 4.1 + ?)
BGK = 6, 2, 8 (2.4 + .6 + 2.4 = 5.4)
PBB = 7, 6, 1 or 2 or 3 (2.8 + 1.8 + ? = 4.6 + ?)
A21 = 8, 8, 10 (3.2 + 2.4 + 3 = 8.6)
BRK = 9, 9, 6 or 7 (3.6 + 2.7 + ? = 6.3 + ?)
GBP = 10, 10, 5 or 6 (4 + 3 + ? = 7 + ?)

So, the current computations see this:

TNT = 4.3
ROS = 2.3 + either .3 or .6 or .9 or 1.2
SMC = 2.1 + either .3 or .6 or .9 or 1.2 or 1.5
ALA = 1.9 + either .3 or .6 or 1.2 or 2.1
MER = 4.1 + either .3 or .6 or .9 or 1.2
BGK = 5.4
PBB = 4.6 + either .3 or .6 or .9
A21 = 8.6
BRK = 6.3 + either 1.8 or 2.1
GBP = 7 + either 1.5 or 1.8

*It is improbable that PBB finishes fourth and ALA finishes third.

First things first, what will be the scenario after Friday night (Alaska vs San Mig Coffee):

If Alaska wins:

SMC would be at 3.6
GBP would be at 8.8
BRK would be at 8.4

Participating lottery teams will be GBP (2 lottery envelopes) and A21 (1 lottery envelope).

Barako then drafts third, followed by some order between BGK, PBB and MER (depending on the results of the semis), then TNT and SMC, then finishing with either ROS or ALA (depending on subsequent results).

If SMC wins:

ALA would be at 4
GBP would be at 8.5
BRK would be at 7.8

Participating lottery teams will be A21 (2 lottery envelopes) and GBP (1 lottery envelope).

Barako then drafts third, followed by some order between BGK, PBB and MER (depending on subsequent results), then TNT and ALA, then finishing with either ROS or SMC (depending on subsequent results).

Part 2 will done once the cast of semifinalists is complete for the PBA Governors' Cup.